Global Smart Mobility Outlook: The Regulations Driving Growth

The global smart mobility landscape is undergoing rapid transformation with a complex web of regulations and policies reshaping connected car technologies and autonomous transportation systems across major markets. Governments worldwide are implementing frameworks addressing everything from autonomous vehicle insurance requirements to satellite communications standards as the industry prepares for exponential growth through 2030.

Key Takeaways

The global connected car market is projected to reach USD 26.4 billion by 2030, growing at 13.3% CAGR from its 2024 valuation
Autonomous vehicle regulations are maturing with the UK targeting 2025 for commercial self-driving service legislation and Germany mandating insurance frameworks
Integration of 6G NTN satellite connectivity with 5G networks is revolutionizing vehicle communications with first deployments expected by 2027
Electric vehicle infrastructure mandates are expanding with the EU requiring charging stations every 60 km on core networks by 2025
Policy focus is shifting from purchase incentives toward infrastructure development in major markets while emerging economies maintain consumer subsidies

Global Market Growth and Regional Leadership

The connected car ecosystem is experiencing unprecedented expansion, projected to grow from USD 12.4 billion in 2024 to USD 26.4 billion by 2030 at a 13.3% CAGR. This growth is fueled by technological advances in 5G connectivity, artificial intelligence, and rising consumer demand for smart vehicle features.

The Asia Pacific region has secured dominant market leadership, driven by rapid urbanization and substantial investments in smart city initiatives. Chinese and Indian automotive manufacturers including Geely, BYD, and Tata Motors are advancing connectivity technologies that are reshaping global standards.

Over-the-Air (OTA) updates currently hold the largest market segment usage, allowing manufacturers to continuously improve software and add features without requiring physical dealer visits. This capability is transforming the vehicle ownership experience and extending product lifecycles.

Telecommunications and Connectivity Regulations

The telecommunications backbone supporting smart mobility is undergoing significant regulatory development. The International Telecommunication Union adopted Resolution 104 at WTSA-24 in October 2024, establishing a comprehensive framework for vehicular communications standards essential for connected and automated vehicle operations.

The integration of 6G Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN) is a primary focus for 2025-2035, with development centered on satellite and high-altitude platform station integration. These systems will enable fast autonomous network setup over specific regions through advanced inter-satellite links.

In a groundbreaking demonstration, the 5G Automotive Association recently showcased satellite-connected vehicles in Paris, proving the viability of non-terrestrial networks working alongside terrestrial 4G and 5G infrastructure. The trial successfully demonstrated emergency messaging via satellite and seamless switching between network types for uninterrupted voice communication.

According to the 5GAA roadmap, initial deployment of satellite connectivity in production vehicles is expected by 2027, with ongoing development of emergency service provision via satellite for in-car conditions regardless of terrestrial network availability.

Autonomous Vehicle Regulatory Frameworks

Countries are racing to establish comprehensive legal frameworks for autonomous vehicles, with the United Kingdom taking a leading position. The UK's Automated Vehicles Act of 2024 is focused on commercial self-driving vehicle services, positioning itself among the first nations to fully legalize AV operations.

Germany is implementing innovative insurance regulations that mandate liability coverage for all Level 4+ autonomous vehicles by 2025. This framework establishes clear expectations for developers, fleet operators, and insurers while addressing critical questions around liability determination and risk assessment.

Dubai has unveiled an ambitious smart city strategy targeting 25% autonomous transport by 2030. The emirate is creating a regulatory environment specifically designed to encourage innovation in AV development and deployment, with the goal of reducing congestion and enhancing safety.

Japan has taken a distinctive approach by mandating remote monitoring for all Level 4 autonomous vehicles. This requirement ensures human supervisors can intervene if necessary, even for fully driverless vehicles, with strict focus on secure communication channels and real-time monitoring capabilities.

Electric Vehicle Policies and Infrastructure

The global electric vehicle market achieved remarkable growth with sales reaching 14 million units in 2023, a 35% increase from 2022. This momentum continued with 25% growth in Q1 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. By the end of 2024, global EV sales are projected to reach 17 million, potentially representing 20% of total car sales.

Looking toward 2025, analysts forecast 85 million EVs on roads worldwide, with Battery Electric Vehicles comprising 73% of this fleet. This rapid expansion is reshaping infrastructure requirements and regulatory approaches globally.

Major markets including China, the US, and Europe are shifting policy focus from consumer purchase incentives toward supporting heavy-duty transportation electrification and charging infrastructure development. Meanwhile, emerging economies continue relying on subsidies and incentives to drive EV adoption in their markets.

The European Union maintains its 2035 ban on new combustion engine car sales through the European Green Deal while implementing the 'Fit for 55' package that led to Regulation (EU) 2023/1804, effective April 2024. This regulation establishes minimum infrastructure requirements across all EU transport modes.

By 2025, the EU's TEN-T core network will have electric charging stations every 60 kilometers for light-duty vehicles. The regulation also mandates 1.3 kW of publicly accessible charging power for each battery-electric vehicle and 0.8 kW for plug-in hybrids, ensuring adequate infrastructure scaling with EV adoption.

Vehicle-to-Everything Communications and Security

Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) technologies are advancing to improve traffic flow, reduce carbon emissions, and enable infrastructure upgrades. These systems focus on seamless communication between all road users and surrounding infrastructure through complex technical and policy collaboration spanning automotive, transportation, telecom, and security sectors.

Cybersecurity regulations for connected vehicles are rapidly evolving, especially in regions like Japan and Europe where strict standards govern encryption and data protection. Manufacturers must address increasingly stringent requirements for trusted determination of vehicle location, secure communication channels, and protection against remote attacks.

New mobility systems aim for zero packet loss and zero interruption in high-mobility environments through a combination of terrestrial and NTN networks. These requirements are driving development of energy-efficient service delivery with flexible spectrum usage and optimized traffic routing between different access links.

Governments and standards bodies including the ITU and UNECE are collaborating extensively on protocols for trusted digital driving systems. These efforts address encryption challenges and data protection requirements associated with connected autonomous vehicles, harmonizing approaches to create consistent global standards.

Trade Policies and Supply Chain Impacts

Trade policies are increasingly shaped by mobility transitions, with restrictions and standards affecting manufacturing and deployment of telecom and automotive hardware. Global supply chains for critical components like semiconductor chips, battery materials, and connectivity infrastructure face growing scrutiny.

Governments are prioritizing domestic production and secure supply chains in response to geo-economic tensions. This shift impacts international standards for interoperability in vehicular communications and intelligent transport systems while creating regional variations in technology deployment.

Sustainability ambitions are driving significant changes in trade regulations related to connected transportation. These include certification requirements, emissions standards, and material sourcing guidelines that affect global manufacturers and service providers throughout the mobility ecosystem.

Future Developments and Integration

The industry is moving toward seamless global service continuity across terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks. System requirements for 6G-NTN aim to enable fast setup of autonomous networks over specific regions via satellite with inter-satellite links extending coverage for connected vehicles in remote areas.

Broadband connectivity to autonomous cars and drones, including urban air mobility, is a growing focus. These advanced mobility systems require zero service degradation in high-mobility scenarios, driving innovation in network design and management.

The EU's TEN-T core network development is integrating digital infrastructure with physical transport networks, creating comprehensive connected corridors. This approach demonstrates how policy frameworks are evolving to consider transportation and communication infrastructure as integrated systems rather than separate domains.